The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Brooklyn, Michigan this weekend. So far this year, we've seen two first time winners, unbelievably close finishes, and even seen a fan favorite lose a race due to fuel mileage. And at Michigan International Speedway, fuel mileage will no doubt play a major factor once again. In June 2009, Greg Biffle was bit by fuel mileage when his car coasted to the finish as it ran out of fuel on the last lap, and Mark Martin brought home the win.
New fuel cans were implemented in the Sprint Cup Series at the start of the 2011 season. The fuel cans, which were already being used in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series, were meant to be easier to use and eliminated the need for a crew member to use a catch can. Still, some Cup teams have struggled with getting enough fuel in the cars. With fuel mileage on every driver's mind, teams will have bring their A-game for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400.
But it'll take more than just making sure the car has enough fuel in it for a driver to win on Sunday.
One can't think of Michigan and not immediately think of the Ford drivers. The area is home to the headquarters of Roush Industries and Ford Motor Company. Ford has 31 victories at MIS. Five drivers (Mark Martin, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards) have earned 11 Sprint Cup Series victories at MIS for Jack Roush.
Bottom line: Keep an eye on the Ford drivers this weekend. So...just who do I think will win on Sunday? It should come as no surprise that the RFR drivers take up 4 of my top 5 picks.
1. Carl Edwards -- No. 99 Aflac Now Hiring Ford
With an average finish of 6.3 and a driver rating of 110.5, he takes the top spot on my list. Edwards has 2 Sprint Cup Series wins at MIS and has earned 8 top-5 finishes and 11 top-10 finishes. Edwards has an average running position of 8.1, which is second-best in the series. Edwards has also been to victory lane once (August 2008) at MIS in the Nationwide Series.
So far this season, Edwards has racked up one win (Las Vegas), 7 top-5 finishes, 10 top-10 finishes, and two poles (Phoenix and Bristol). Plus, he's currently the points leader, and after an equipment failure took him out of contention last weekend at Pocono, Edwards will no doubt do all he can to win on Sunday to try and extend his points lead.
2. Matt Kenseth -- No. 17 Crown Royal Ford
Kenseth has already been to victory lane twice (Texas and Dover) in 2011, and now the team's headed to one of his favorite tracks. At MIS, Kenseth has won twice (June 2002 and August 2006) in 23 starts. He has 10 top-5 finishes and 14 top-10 finishes for an average finish of 9.8 at MIS. Kenseth has a driver rating of 101.2 at MIS, which is second-best overall.
For a driver who has already earned one pole (Las Vegas), 4 top-5 finishes, and 7 top-10 finishes in 2011, Kenseth will more than likely be a contender for the win on Sunday. Entering the weekend, he is 7th in the standings, 44 points outside of first.
3. David Ragan -- No. 6 UPS Ford
Ragan has 8 starts at MIS, and has earned 1 top-5 finish and 2 top-10 finishes for an average finish of 17.5. He has finished on the lead lap in all but 2 of his 8 starts at the track. At MIS, Ragan has a driver rating of 77.6, which is 17th overall. He has an average running position of 17.8.
Just a few weeks ago, Ragan earned his career-best finish of 2nd during the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The good news for Ragan is that both his primary chassis and backup chassis for this weekend have won races. His primary is the one he won the Sprint Showdown in at Charlotte in May and went on to finish 8th in the All-Star Race later that night. The backup is the same chassis that Carl Edwards drove to victory lane at Phoenix in November 2010. He heads to MIS 16th in the standings, 121 points outside of first.
4. Greg Biffle -- No. 16 Red Cross Ford
Biffle has two wins (August 2004 and June 2005) at MIS and has an average finish of 12.3. He has racked up 7 top-5 finishes and 10 top-10 finishes in 16 starts. He has a driver rating of 104.8 at MIS.
So far, 2011 has been an up and down season for Biffle. He started the year off with a DNF in the Daytona 500 and it's been like an uphill battle so far. His best finish so far this season is 4th (Texas). He has earned just that one top-5 finish and 5 top-10 finishes in the first 14 races this year. While he might not look like the driver to beat at MIS this weekend, Biffle does have the same thing going for him that his three teammates have...a Ford powered engine.
5. Denny Hamlin -- No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota
Hamlin went to victory lane at MIS last June to earn his first win at the track. In his 10 starts at MIS, he's racked up 4 top-5 finishes and 6 top-10 finishes for an average finish of 10.9.
It's been a very uncharacteristic year for Hamlin. Just last year, he won 8 races, easily made the Chase, and was a major contender for the championship. This year? Not much noise has come from the No. 11 team. Fourteen races into the 2010 season, Hamlin had already racked up 4 wins. So far in 2011, no wins and his best finish has been 2nd (Richmond). There have been a few races this year where he has really shone, but he just hasn't quite been able to get it all together in the end.
He comes into the weekend 12th in the standings, 84 points behind leader Edwards.
Notable drivers to watch: Brian Vickers, Joey Logano, and Mark Martin.
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